Emerging Markets Economics Update What higher oil prices mean for EMs If oil prices were to remain at their elevated levels, they could push current account and budget balances into surplus in many of the EM producers. It would also ease any concerns about dollar pegs... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation a worry in South Asia, but less so elsewhere Inflation is a growing concern for policymakers in South Asia and means interest rates are likely to rise further this year. Elsewhere in Asia, inflation remains low and is likely to fall back over... 8th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What would it take for inflation to surge in Japan? A perfect storm of surging house prices, a further worsening of supply shortages, and a pick-up in labour mobility would be needed to cause an inflation surge in Japan. Even if inflation did reach 2%... 8th February 2022 · 17 mins read
Japan Economics Update Manufacturing profit margins set to reach record-high Soaring input prices have kept profit margins of manufacturers below their pre-virus peak even as those of services firms have hit record highs. However, manufacturers will catch up before long. 6th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak lira boost missing, Poland-EU conflict hopes? The latest indicators raise concern that the boost to Turkey's external competitiveness from a weak lira may not be having the desired effect. Meanwhile, positive developments in Poland this week... 4th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update What explains January’s inflation surprise? Most of the surprise in January’s inflation data came from energy inflation. But core inflation was also unexpectedly strong. With underlying price pressures continuing to build, there is a good... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose to a stronger-than-expected 48.7% y/y in January due to the effects of the recent collapse in the lira and large hikes to energy tariffs and it is likely to stay... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Jan.) January’s inflation data support our view that the ECB will soon forecast inflation to be at its target over the medium term. Accordingly, we think that policymakers will end net asset purchases... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron waves in the rear view mirror Waves of the Omicron variant that spread across the region in December have subsided sharply in recent weeks. And timely survey and mobility data point to a smaller hit from these latest waves... 31st January 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (January) The smaller-than-anticipated fall in Germany’s inflation rate, and increase in core inflation in Portugal and Spain, suggest that underlying price pressures are continuing to build. Euro-zone... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack A less subdued Lunar New Year Millions of people traditionally travel across China to spend this evening, the eve of Lunar New Year, with their families. The tradition has been severely disrupted by the pandemic. Last year, amid a... 31st January 2022 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria sticking with subsidies, dovish rate decisions The announcement by the Nigerian authorities to maintain fuel subsidies – rather than end the scheme as planned – reduces inflation risks, but the budget deficit is set to come in wider than... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Unpacking Argentina’s IMF agreement The Argentine government’s agreement with the IMF for a new $44.5bn deal is a positive step to improve macroeconomic stability. But, at first glance, the deal seems to be based on rosy economic... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s drive for “lira-isation”, Russia’s market sell-off The upwards revision to the Turkish central bank's 2022 inflation forecast this week was just a matter of catching up with reality and the more interesting detail was the central bank’s emphasis on... 28th January 2022 · 9 mins read
