Global Markets Update Is China behind the decline in US Treasury yields? The rally in the US government bond market this year has coincided with a pick-up in China’s netpurchases of long-term Treasury securities, which some have attributed to intervention to weaken... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK equities continue to underperform UK equities have continued to underperform relative to overseas indices despite the comparativestrength of the UK’s economic recovery. This seems to have partly reflected concerns that the UK... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Jun.) & FX reserves (Q2) The rebound in credit growth last month has more to do with a weak base for comparison due to the cash crunch last year, than with the current policy stance. Meanwhile, with upwards pressure on the... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unlikely to take aim at rising currency While the Bank of Canada's hopes for an export revival could be thwarted by the recent resurgence in the Canadian dollar, it has few options other than cutting interest rates to try and turn things... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will EM corporate bonds continue to outperform? Emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds outperformed similarly-rated US corporate bonds in the second quarter of this year. We expect this outperformance to continue. Admittedly, bonds... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production figures suggested that the stronger pound might bestarting to slow the revival of the manufacturing sector. Nonetheless, there is still agood chance that the overall... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro finally about to drop? Recent policy developments support our expectation that the euro will fall against the US dollar. We forecast a rate of $1.30 at end-2014 and $1.25 at end-2015. But that fall could be too little too... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weaker credit growth to weigh on region Most countries in Emerging Asia should record reasonable growth over the next couple of years, helped by a combination of supportive monetary policy and a pick-up in demand from advanced economies... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Euro likely to come under pressure again soon Additional easing by the ECB in June has failed to generate further downward pressure on the euro. Indeed, the euro has strengthened since the Governing Council met last month. However, while the ECB... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Pay growth likely to spring back soon While the economic recovery appears to have accelerated in Q2, workers are still failing to see the benefits in their pay packets. Annual growth in average weekly earnings fell from 2.2% to -1.7% in... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unified FX rate not guaranteed to end Venezuelan dollar drought The Venezuelan economy remains in the grip of a dollar drought, and it seems that the government maysoon abandon its disastrous experiment with a multi-tiered exchange rate. But even if a new... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM equity valuations remain relatively attractive Emerging market equities were on track to outperform their developed market counterparts in Q2 for the first quarter in six. However, they still have a lot of ground to make up. Since the end of 2012... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Will the MPC continue to anchor markets? Although the UK’s economic recovery has gone from strength to strength, markets have remained optimistic that monetary policy will remain highly accommodative for a while longer yet. Indeed, on the... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Contagion from Argentine debt dispute limited So far at least, financial markets in Argentina have largely shrugged off the fact that, barring a last minute deal with holdout creditors, the government now seems destined to enter a technical... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s financial markets recover, while Indonesia’s falter Reduced political tensions in Thailand have boosted its stock market and the baht. But in Indonesia, growing uncertainty over the result of July’s presidential election has weighed on financial... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Upward pressure on renminbi is building The renminbi has been allowed to strengthen by 0.5% against the dollar so far this month. A rebounding trade surplus will, in our view, force the People’s Bank to tolerate further gains in the months... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
