Commodities Update Lower production estimates won’t stop grain prices falling Global corn, wheat and soybeans remain on course for record harvests this year. Combined with high stocks, lower energy costs and a stronger US dollar, we continue to expect crop prices to fall... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is there still value in Japanese equities? Japanese equities have paused for breath following the surge in the wake of the additional easing announced by the Bank of Japan and the reweighting of the government pension fund in favour of stocks... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why a weaker ruble spells trouble for Russia’s banks There are relatively few parallels between the 1998 ruble crisis and the present crisis, but one point in common is that some of the greatest vulnerabilities to a weaker currency lie in the banking... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Which sector is gaining most from the weaker yen? Several factors determine how currency weakness affects firms in different export sectors. Over the past two years, the chemical industry and the car industry have seen the biggest gains in export... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there a case for another Plaza Accord? Although co-ordinated exchange rate intervention is taboo at present, it has been attempted in the past and could, in principle, be tried again in future. Admittedly, both the political and economic... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How big a threat is the weak yen to Korea? The latest increase in asset purchases by the Bank of Japan has caused another weakening of the yen, and created anxiety around the rest of Asia over rising competition from Japanese exports. Given... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank to be forced into further rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble is likely to force the Central Bank of Russia into making a one-off intervention in the currency market, permitted under its new exchange rate policy, rather more... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s Draghi signals QE is imminent Today’s statement from Mr Draghi that ECB staff are preparing further monetary policy measures provided the firmest support yet for our long-held view that the Bank will implement full-blown... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira’s decline increases chance of a rate hike The sharp fall in the Nigerian naira today probably reflects reduced intervention by the central bank, and increases the probability that policymakers will raise interest rates later this month. We... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt to let the pound fall sooner rather than later The Egyptian pound has held steady in recent months but we think that policymakers will need to loosen their grip on the currency in the not-too-distant future. All told, we forecast the pound to drop... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack After a wobble, US equities post another record high The S&P 500 has recovered from a major wobble in October and recently posted another record high. That being said, we don’t think the strong performance is likely to last. The value of the US stock... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the strong dollar a threat to the US stock market? Although the US stock market has rebounded in recent weeks, one development that could cap its upside is a further rally in the dollar. A strengthening currency causes exporters to lose market share... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Gold referendum highlights limits of SNB policy Fears that a referendum over the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) gold holdings might prevent the Bank defending its ceiling for the Swiss franc may be overblown. But the referendum highlights political... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Gold referendum highlights limits of SNB policy Fears that a referendum over the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) gold holdings might prevent the Bank defending its ceiling for the Swiss franc may be overblown. But the referendum highlights political... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index back to a three-year high in October supports our view that the US economy will largely shrug off the recent easing in global demand and the effects of the... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
