Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) Data released over the weekend showed that inflation in Nigeria continued to slow in November. But we expect it to accelerate again before too long as the effect of the naira’s weakness feeds through... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in oil prices leaves housing looking even more exposed The Bank of Canada admitted last week that the housing market has completely overshot and that the overvaluation is somewhere in the range of 10% to 30%. If we had to pick a number, it would be close... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble sell-off sparks fears of more radical policy action The ruble has continued to fall in spite of the rise in Russian interest rates, raising speculation that capital controls may be introduced. While we wouldn’t rule these out, we still think they are... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Are EM corporate bonds really that vulnerable? Since the end of October, emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds have performed much worse than comparably-rated US corporate bonds. This has been the result of increasing credit spreads... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB will need to act against the franc very soon While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left policy on hold today, it reaffirmed its “utmost determination” to defend its ceiling for the franc exchange rate. It may introduce a negative interest rate to... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will need to act against the franc very soon While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left policy on hold today, it reaffirmed its “utmost determination” to defend its ceiling for the franc exchange rate. It may introduce a negative interest rate to... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland prepares to lift capital controls but delays likely The Icelandic Government’s preparations to scale back capital controls early next year certainly represent a positive first step towards lifting the restrictions. However, we remain cautious at this... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt settlement increasingly unlikely before 2016 An improvement in Argentina’s foreign currency liquidity makes it much less likely that the government will reach a settlement with holdout creditors in the New Year and exit default. Indeed, we... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How likely is a Ukrainian default? Ukraine’s deepening recession and the slide in the central bank’s FX reserves have raised fresh questions about whether the government will default on its debt. On the economics alone, we think... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Drop in oil price hits Colombia’s financial markets The continued slide in the price of oil has sent Colombia’s financial markets tumbling over the past month. The peso has dropped to a five-year low against the dollar, breaching both our end-14 and... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor External debt unlikely to spur widespread stress An increase in external debt has raised concerns that the emerging world faces a rough ride over the coming years as the dollar strengthens. However, our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI)... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasury yields set to rise as Fed tightens The yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen further over the past month. But we expect it to rise as the Fed tightens policy. Admittedly, during the last major tightening cycle in 2004-2006, it... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must deliver on QE to push euro lower The rise in the euro during the ECB’s press conference last week apparently reflected disappointment that President Draghi did not provide more explicit signals that quantitative easing (QE) is coming... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will Fed hikes trigger another leg down for EM currencies? The US Fed is set to begin raising interest rates in the first half of next year, casting renewed uncertainty over the outlook for EM currencies. But big and necessary adjustments in many currencies... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling oil prices open the door to rate cuts in Mexico Mexico’s growth story has lost some of its shine in recent weeks. We still expect GDP growth to accelerate in 2015. But the recent fall in oil prices, coupled with the fact that fiscal policy is... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira to remain overvalued despite fall in oil prices The latest estimates by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in October suggested that the Turkish lira remains one of the most “fundamentally” overvalued emerging market currencies that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
