Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s central bank takes some heat out of the ruble crisis Aggressive hikes in interest rates coupled with the central bank’s decision to accelerate the move towards a fully floating currency have helped to stabilise the Russian ruble over the past week. But... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yen's collapse to have only modest impact on US economy Russian activity data for last month suggest that the economy withstood the initial sharp drop in the price of oil better than some had feared. But even so, the big picture is that growth is still... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will QE in Japan and the euro-zone affect EMs? The Bank of Japan’s decision to boost asset purchases just as the ECB edges towards QE has rekindled concerns about negative spillovers from developed world monetary policy to the emerging world. The... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the yen bounce back? There have been three episodes in the past twenty years when the yen has rebounded substantially following a sustained period of depreciation. In each case, the trigger was an increase in financial... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will lower oil prices end Norway’s long boom? Norway has been one of the strongest growing economies of the developed world over the last decade. But with households buckling under high debt burdens and lower oil prices set to exacerbate the... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC may not wait as long as markets expect In the space of just three months, UK markets have pushed back their expectations for the first rise in official interest rates from February to November 2015. This may turn out to be an overreaction... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the CAPE giving a false signal about euro-zone equities? The gap between cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratios (CAPE) for the non-financial sectors of the US and euro-zone stock markets – using Shiller’s method – has climbed from below zero in May 2008... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian naira under fire A number of African currencies have struggled this month, with the Nigerian naira hit hardest as the central bank has scaled back its FX intervention dramatically. Nigeria’s bonds have also sold off... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are other Asian currencies to yen weakness? It is tempting to think that a further sharp fall in Japan’s currency would prompt policymakers in the rest of Asia to try to weaken their own in an effort to maintain their competitiveness. But there... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Oct.) & Empire State (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m fall in industrial production in October will boost concerns that the global slowdown and stronger dollar are taking their toll on activity. While industry should be hit harder than other... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen to fall to 140 against the US dollar Japan’s drop back into recession will strengthen the disinflationary pressures in the economy and reinforces the divergence in the prospects for monetary policy relative to those in the US. As a... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Brighter times should lie ahead for EM equities The performance of equities has been lacklustre in emerging markets since the end of September and noticeably worse than in developed markets. As a result, the return so far this year from the MSCI... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs under little threat from lower oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has led some to call into question the sustainability of the Gulf’s dollar pegs. However, we think the risk of currency devaluation is relatively small. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean interest rates to remain on hold until mid-2015 The decision by the Bank of Korea (BoK) to leave interest rates on hold today at 2.0% comes despite the recent weakness of the Japanese yen against the won, which had led to some calls for more rate... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is QE already priced in? Markets have probably at least partially priced in the prospect of QE in the euro-zone, suggesting that the ECB will have to unveil a bold programme to prompt a further significant market reaction. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
