Capital Daily Hope springs eternal in markets, even in a geopolitical storm The course of the war between the US/Israel and Iran remains unclear, but investors appear increasingly willing to look through the near-term uncertainty. 4th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Drop in: Asia’s macro and market vulnerabilities from the Middle East war 5th March 2026, 8:30AM GMT War in the Middle East has triggered a brutal sell-off in some Asian financial markets.
China Economics Update China’s rebalancing conundrum A major policy push to boost domestic demand would both reflate China’s economy and reduce its large current account surplus, which is a source of tension with other countries. But this looks unlikely... 4th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest surge in Gilt yields The latest surge in Gilt yields mainly reflects investors’ assessment of how the conflict in the Middle East will affect inflation and monetary policy in the UK rather than having much to do with... 3rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US market implications of a spike in oil prices This Update considers whether any lessons can be learned from the oil crisis of the early 1970s when it comes to the potential effects on Treasuries and US equities from the current conflict in the... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The market’s reaction to the war, and what might be next The longer the US/Israeli strikes go on the greater the risk to both US Treasuries and equities, in our view. But the US dollar might continue to fare well. 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb 26) China’s economy expanded by just 3.1% in 2025. We expect growth to remain subdued this year too. While the recent change in US tariffs has improved the export outlook for China, we’re expecting less... 27th February 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily A decisive move for Treasuries? Not likely The 10-year Treasury yield tried and failed to break meaningfully below the 4% mark repeatedly last year and is making its first attempt of 2026. We don’t think that it will happen this time either. 27th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour feeling Green, AI optimism, near-term jobs risks The government’s loss in this week’s by-election may raise the chances of looser fiscal policy than otherwise, higher gilt yields than otherwise and a lower pound than otherwise. Meanwhile, the risks... 27th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update The naira’s rally is probably over The Nigerian naira has been one of the strongest performing EM currencies since the start of the year, helped by an improved balance of payments position. But the naira’s rally is starting to hurt... 26th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2026) Our EM Capital Flows measure points to a decline in inflows in recent weeks, although some of this appears to be related to idiosyncratic factors. And in any case, EM external positions look strong by... 26th February 2026 · 0 mins read
Equities Update Weakness in China’s equities could be short-lived After a weak start to the year, we expect Chinese equities to regain their footing over the coming months, partly because their valuations aren’t especially stretched. Moreover, we expect the AI rally... 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three reasons to be positive on the S&P 500 Strong profit growth, as emphasised by recent earnings reports, is one reason to think that the S&P 500 will do well over the rest of this year. In fact, we think there are at least three reasons. 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Renewed yen weakness is unlikely to last Further efforts from the Takaichi government to influence the BoJ threatens another round of turmoil in Japan’s bond and currency markets. But we think the underlying fundamentals point towards... 25th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The continued acceleration in Australia’s underlying inflation at the start of the year vindicates the... 25th February 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Where next for the US stock market? Today’s rally leaves major US equity indices stuck in a range just shy of their all-time high. We think the next move that sticks will be higher, not lower. 24th February 2026 · 3 mins read
