Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (March 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Forecasting through the fog of war A short conflict in Iran would push global inflation temporarily higher and trim GDP growth, but the fallout would be manageable. Central banks that had already begun tightening – such as the BoJ and... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Did an AI bubble in the US stock market already burst? If the presence or otherwise of an AI-fuelled bubble in the stock market is determined solely by the relative valuation of its technology sectors, then any such bubble in the S&P 500 has already burst... 25th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What we can learn from markets’ latest rebound The positive reaction to the latest news on the war provides some guide as to how things might fare if it de-escalates further, and suggests that the damage in some markets might be a bit longer... 24th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets back in escalation mode Escalation in the war remains bad news for asset markets. And while central banks haven’t themselves done much to de-escalate conditions in the bond market, there’s a case, in our view, for an... 23rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Market pricing for many rate hikes conflicts with jobs outlook While there are plausible scenarios in which the Bank of England hikes interest rates in response to the leap in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the jumps in market rate... 20th March 2026 · 10 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic and Market Outlook – Pricing the energy shock 26th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT The surge in energy prices that has accompanied fresh fighting in the Middle East challenges assumptions around global growth, inflation and central bank policy across both developed
Capital Daily Can China’s markets continue to outperform? China’s relative equity and bond market resilience could continue even if the war drags on, although the outlook for the renminbi is less clear. 20th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The future might not be so bad for government bonds While the conflict in the Middle East could evolve in myriad ways, we think government bonds would typically recover in our ‘baseline’ scenario but struggle in our ‘adverse’ one. That largely reflects... 19th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fed unlikely to join the hiking crew The inflation backdrop is growing increasingly problematic for the Fed and rate cuts are not likely anytime soon. That said, our sense is that the chance of rate hikes and a meaningful further sell... 18th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: energy shock adds to currency, sovereign risks Kenya’s reliance on energy imports from Gulf States leaves it amongst the most vulnerable on the continent to the conflict in the Middle East. The fragile external position leaves the onus on the... 18th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Why the UK stock market isn’t doing better despite higher oil prices The Gilt market has grabbed a lot of headlines since the start of the war in the Middle East, as government bond yields have surged by more in the UK than elsewhere in response to soaring oil prices... 17th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update How much of a bubble is there really in Korean equities? While a partial unwind of earlier “excessive exuberance” may explain some of the huge swings in Korea’s equities since the Iran war began, we think the fundamentals of its earlier rally are stronger... 17th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily War and monetary policy, and what it means for markets Major central bank meetings this week will give investors an early sense of how monetary policymakers will respond to the war. We suspect there isn’t much good news in the offing for bonds. 16th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Why the yen hasn’t been a safe haven The yen hasn’t fared especially well over the war so far, but we suspect that reflects some particular features of the current situation and isn’t a sign its safe-haven days are over for good. 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
