Capital Daily Growth concerns take centre stage Notwithstanding some positivity in stock markets today, recent market moves – including a big rally in Treasuries and widening credit spreads – point to growing concerns around economic activity. We... 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) This Europe Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could influence inflation, GDP... 31st March 2026 · 1 min read
Equities Update Reasons for caution on US energy equities The energy sector has been the strongest performing sector of the S&P 500 since the conflict in the Middle East began, but our baseline assumption is that most of this outperformance will unwind over... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 26) China’s growth picked up at the start of the year, thanks to a boost from stronger fiscal spending and exports. This year’s Budget suggests that this fiscal support won't last. As a net energy... 31st March 2026 · 0 mins read
Equities Focus Mapping the next stage of the AI rally Between developments in the Middle East and the software sector, it has been a volatile first quarter for AI-related stocks. This report uses our custom CE AI Equity Indices to gauge the health of the... 31st March 2026 · 16 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil gains lift Angola and Nigeria, but Mozambique strained The surge in energy prices from the Middle East conflict will boost incomes in Angola and Nigeria and upcoming elections and persistent spending pressures mean that much of the windfall is likely to... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows points to larger outflows from emerging market assets since the start of the Middle East conflict than during the height of the pandemic. EM external positions are... 30th March 2026 · 0 mins read
Bonds Update Assessing the risks of another Gilt market meltdown Gilts have been under huge pressure since the start of the war in the Middle East and this Update sketches out how much more pressure they might come under if the war were to drag on. 30th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets’ pain intensifies; fiscal and inflation risks up next? The war’s effects on markets may continue to elude an easy solve, but at least investors aren’t too concerned, yet, about fiscal and inflation risks. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Government’s interest revenue will surpass payments The interest receipts of Japan’s government have risen faster than its interest payments in recent years and we think that will continue even as the 10-year JGB yield has climbed to a 29-year high. In... 30th March 2026 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt this conflict will finally topple tech stocks US tech sectors have been on the back foot over recent days, with valuations falling towards those of the rest of the market. While this echoes the final months of the dotcom bubble, we think these... 27th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel prices, SARB watching second-round effects African government’s responses to rising fuel prices are falling into two camps: those passing higher costs directly to consumers and those absorbing them. Kenya and Ethiopia are doing the latter but... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Dual rally in stocks and bonds still on the cards With uncertainty in financial markets remaining high, we have published a new set of macro and market forecasts built around two key “scenarios”. For now, our baseline assumption is that equities... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update No need for SNB to respond to energy shock Higher energy prices will push headline inflation up in Switzerland this year, but we think that it will remain well within the SNB’s target range. So rather than raising interest rates as is... 26th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Fuelling change – How the energy shock is redefining the EM outlook 16th April 2026, 3:00PM BST Our updated forecasts for emerging markets reflect the impact of the spike in oil and gas prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict. In this online briefing on Thursday 16 April, our…
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (March 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
