US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Oct & Nov 2025) The combined 121,000 rise in private payrolls over October and November was a better result than expected. That positive momentum suggests the Fed will not be overly concerned by the upside surprise... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) Retail sales were unchanged in October, although this was mostly down to lower motor vehicle sales as Biden-era EV rebates were phased out. While household consumption growth will have been weaker in... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Dec. 2025) Although December’s flash PMIs showed that economic activity and price pressures increased, they are still consistent with sluggish GDP growth and falling services inflation. So we doubt this will... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct./Nov. 2025) Despite the continued cooling in the jobs market, total wage growth continues to ease only fairly gradually. But the Bank of England will take comfort from the more significant continued easing in its... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Dec. 2025) The housing market weakened in November, with sales activity and house prices both recording declines. Even so, the further improvement in the sales-to-new-listing ratio raises our confidence that... 15th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Oct. 2025) The fall in manufacturing sales in October appears to have been mostly the result of newly-implemented US tariffs weighing on certain sectors, or at least the threat thereof. We expect trade... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The below-target gain in three of the four main core prices measures in November reinforces our view that markets have gotten ahead of themselves by pricing in higher interest rates from the Bank of... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook The year that inflation falls back to 2% After enduring a higher inflation rate than most of its peers for the bulk of the past five years, we think that 2026 will be the year that inflation in the UK falls back to the 2.0% target. That will... 15th December 2025 · 17 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ set to hike further as business conditions strengthen The Q4 Tankan Survey struck all the right notes from the Bank of Japan’s perspective. It showed that business conditions are improving, profit margins remain elevated, and that firms are upbeat about... 15th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly ICT services still riding the AI boom The Quarterly Services Survey report, released to little fanfare this Thursday, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven again by AI-related double-digit... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unmoved by positive jobs data The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% this week, wrapping up a year in which it has cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp. Barring any shocks, the Bank appears comfortable keeping the... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy bigger than thought and poised to rebound Rebased national accounts data released this week show that Japan’s nominal GDP is around 5% higher than previously estimated, which in turn implies that the ratio of public debt to GDP is lower. This... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Oct. 2025) With the economy still contending with the drags from high interest rates, higher taxes and weak overseas demand, the surprise 0.1% m/m contraction in the economy in October (consensus forecast +0.1%... 12th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soft labour market data won’t keep RBA from hiking When the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold this week, it clearly signalled that it has a tightening bias. Although the weak November jobs report complicates the outlook somewhat, we suspect... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will lift rates to 1.75% by 2027 The Bank of Japan will almost certainly lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting. And while government subsidies will push headline inflation below 2% next year, the strength of... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Sep) The trade deficit narrowed markedly to $52.8bn in September, from $59.3bn, as exports increased by 3.0% m/m, easily outpacing a 0.6% m/m gain in imports. It now appears that third-quarter GDP growth... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
