Global Economics Update Global industry muddling through in Q4 November’s manufacturing PMI surveys paint a picture of soft growth in both activity and prices for global industry, with global supply chains still showing no signs of stress from tariffs. 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov. 2025) The further small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in November adds to the evidence that tariffs and related uncertainty are weighing on the factory sector, though not entirely crippling it. 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 25) The Fed looks set to cut interest rates again in December, but we think investors are too optimistic about further easing next year. We expect only one 25bp cut in 2026, compared with roughly 75bp of... 1st December 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Assessing data quality in advanced economies While the accuracy of some official economic data in the UK and US has deteriorated recently, the issue is mainly concentrated in labour market data and does not appear to be a problem in other... 1st December 2025 · 21 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Oct. 2025) October’s money and lending figures suggest nervousness about forthcoming tax rises in the Budget on 26th November prompted households to become a bit more cautious with their borrowing and saving. 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Resilience of profits adds to case for tighter policy With corporate profits hitting fresh record highs, the BoJ’s concern that US tariffs will provide a major headwind to business investment and wage growth looks increasingly overdone. To be sure... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Are first-time buyers fuelling the house prices rally? The less stringent criteria for accessing the government’s support scheme for first-time home buyers hasn’t noticeably boosted overall housing demand. Indeed, the key constraint remains extremely... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian housing can’t buck its affordability problem Australia's house price growth picked up further in November and leading indicators suggest the rally has further to run. However, with the RBA unlikely to lower interest rates any further, mortgage... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan will lift its policy rate this month In response to a hawkish speech by Governor Ueda today, we now expect the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting that ends on 19 th December instead of our previous... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy doing poorly despite upside GDP surprise The upside surprise to third-quarter GDP growth greatly overstates the strength of the economy, with household spending contracting for the first time since the pandemic. Similarly, the Survey of... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q3 2025 and Sep) The big upside surprise to GDP growth last quarter was entirely due to a sharp drop back in imports and masks a much more worrying contraction in domestic demand. The declines in household consumption... 28th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor puts MPs and the markets ahead of growth In this week’s Budget, the Chancellor pulled off the delicate balancing act of not upsetting Labour MPs, who wanted higher spending, and investors, who wanted to see fiscal discipline. But the... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart pack (November 2025) The latest data suggest that the global economy has maintained its momentum at the start of Q4. Global trade and industry have held up well despite US tariffs, although there were signs of cracks in... 28th November 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan opening the door to December rate hike Recent communication from the Bank of Japan has left the door open to a rate hike in December. However, it’s not clear whether the Bank has already gathered sufficient information on the likely... 28th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is done cutting rates this cycle With underlying inflation continuing to surprise to the upside and domestic demand being propped up by a revival in private investment, we no longer expect the RBA to loosen policy any further... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct. 25) Strong increases in industrial production and retail sales in October suggest that Japan’s economy at least stopped contracting this quarter. 28th November 2025 · 2 mins read
