With the economy still contending with the drags from high interest rates, higher taxes and weak overseas demand, the surprise 0.1% m/m contraction in the economy in October (consensus forecast +0.1%, Capital Economics forecast +0.2%) is unlikely to be entirely the result of the one-off drags from the Jaguar Land Rover cyber-attack and Budget uncertainty. This lends further support to our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next Thursday.
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