UK Economics Update Credit conditions still consistent with weaker activity The fading effects of the mini-budget meant that bank lending conditions to households and businesses didn’t deteriorate any further in Q1. But the latest credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Leisure sector to suffer as savings are exhausted Despite the cost-of-living crisis, the leisure sector did better than expected last year as households used the savings they had built up during the pandemic to boost spending on recreation and... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2023) The headline mortgage availability balance of the credit conditions survey turned positive for the first time in over a year in Q1. The collapse of SVB while the survey was in the field probably helps... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP (Feb.) The stagnation in real GDP in February means the economy probably avoided recession in Q1. But it also increases the chances that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates further to... 13th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.) The marginal improvement in the headline prices paid and new buyer enquiries balance of the RICS Residential Survey did not alter the overarching message that prices are falling and sales slumping. 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 23) The strength in March’s labour market data will probably prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a final 25bp rate hike next month, but unemployment will rise before long. 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 23) 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada delivers mixed messages The Bank of Canada delivered a mixed message today, noting that it is more confident inflation will decline in the next few months, but less confident that inflation will fall all the way to 2.0% as... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Capital values to fall 25% in San Fran, Seattle and D.C. We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an... 12th April 2023 · 13 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) There were some encouraging signs in the March CPI report, including the first evidence that shelter inflation is slowing, but core prices still increased by 0.4% m/m which, on an annualised basis, is... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Governor Ueda to cull YCC as his first act Japan has escaped the recent banking turmoil in the US and Switzerland relatively unscathed. While banks face some risks arising from their lending exposure overseas, there are no signs of liquidity... 12th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Feb. 2023) The fall in “core” machinery orders in February is another bearish signal on business investment last quarter. Domestic machine tool orders suggest a further fall in March, but even if “core”... 12th April 2023 · 2 mins read
