UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Underlying retail sales volumes aren’t as soggy as the 0.9% m/m drop in March suggests as some of that fall was due to the unusually wet weather. The further rebound in consumer confidence in April... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly We still expect Ueda to spring a surprise next week Press reports suggest that the Bank of Japan will predict inflation of 2% two years ahead at next week's meeting, which would suggest that the Bank is closer than ever to meeting its inflation target... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More trouble brewing down under Things will get worse before they get better for the Antipodean economies. House prices in New Zealand have plummeted by 18% from their January 2022 peak. And with affordability extremely stretched... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Apr. 2023) April’s flash PMIs point to further upside risks to our GDP forecasts, indicating a broad improvement in both domestic and external demand. That suggests the exports downturn may be short-lived... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2023) Underlying inflation saw a sizeable increase in March, while headline inflation inched down thanks to falling energy prices. A stronger yen and falling import price inflation should still see... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Bad news for risky assets: financial conditions really are tight We think Fed Chair Powell was right to suggest last month that financial conditions have probably tightened by more than the traditional indices imply. That spells bad news for risky assets. We are... 20th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Existing home sales edged lower in March rounding off the weakest start to the year in over a decade. While the lending data point to further declines in April, we expect mortgage rates will fall back... 20th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Direct economic effects of CRE rout will be limited We expect rising interest rates and structural headwinds to trigger a deep rout in commercial real estate. The impacts on the real economy will be mostly indirect via the impact on small bank lending... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: BOJ Special – Governor Ueda’s debut and the future of YCC 28th April 2023, 9:00AM BST As the new Bank of Japan Governor prepares to chair his first policy meeting, the future of the Yield Curve Control policy is again in focus. Will Kazuo Ueda bring continuity or change?
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage rates unlikely to fall further As mortgage lenders’ net interest margins are already very narrow, the increase in market interest rates over the past fortnight means that the decline in mortgage rates from their spike after the... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lowe unlikely to be reappointed as RBA Governor The recommendations by the RBA’s review panel unveiled today were broadly in line with what we had anticipated. While the 2-3% inflation target will be retained, sweeping changes to the Bank’s... 20th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Mar. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in March as import values fell faster than export values. Data for Q1 so far are still consistent with a negative contribution from net trade to GDP. 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2023) Although inflation in Q1 was below what the RBNZ had expected, we don’t expect the Bank to take its foot off the brakes just yet. Indeed, with non-tradables prices continuing to rise at a rapid clip... 20th April 2023 · 2 mins read
