UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) The third consecutive monthly increase in house prices recorded by Halifax suggests that pricing is proving remarkably resilient to higher mortgage rates. But it is at odds with the consistent fall in... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The second consecutive big increase in German industrial production in February all but confirms that GDP returned to growth in Q1. The industrial resilience may continue in the coming months but we... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb. 2023) The widening of the trade surplus in February largely reflects the fact that imports of goods and services fell at a much faster rate than exports. Therefore, even though net trade will make a... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly External demand weakness has further to run Firms expect the recent weakness in external demand to last another quarter at least, according to the BoJ’s latest Tankan survey. That should drag on business investment as well and cause the economy... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) February saw a slowdown in jobs growth after a strong month prior, suggesting January’s jump in employment was an outlier as the labour market resumes its cooling. We expect metros with a high... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: March CPI and the Fed’s next steps 12th April 2023, 3:00PM BST Will underlying inflation prove to be stickier than we thought?
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Mar.) Our composite models suggest the economy was on track to fall into recession soon even before the impact of the banking turmoil feeds through. There also appears to be a lower, but rising, chance that... 5th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Is 2% core inflation feasible this year? Underlying inflation pressures are still well above the 2% mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s target range, but there are several reasons to expect disinflationary forces to build. We forecast that CPI... 5th April 2023 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Resilient, but recession still likely Recent data suggest the economy’s resilient end to 2022 was sustained at the start of this year. But while the worst of the falls in real household incomes are in the past, we still think around two... 5th April 2023 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) A sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields in the middle of March led to a drop in mortgage rates, restoking demand for mortgage applications as a result. We expect this will help offset a tightening... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The sharp declines in both exports and imports in February add to the signs that economic growth is faltering. Although strong gains in January mean that both are still likely to have risen over the... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office capital values can’t deny gravity forever London office capital values fell by a relatively modest amount in the second half of last year and monthly data show values stabilised in the first two months of 2023. But that has left London office... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMIs suggest that the economy expanded in Q1. They also point to further gains in employment and strong price pressures. With the turmoil in the banking sector having stabilised, this makes us... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
