US Fed Watch Rates close to peak The Fed looks set to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next week, taking the fed funds target range to a peak of 5.00%-5.25%. Although the accompanying statement may leave open the... 26th April 2023 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 3.2% m/m jump in durable goods orders in March mainly reflects a stronger-than-expected gain in the more volatile commercial aircraft component, with the details suggesting that first-quarter... 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1 2023) Total returns of -1.8% q/q in Q1 reflected a much smaller markdown in values than in Q4. But, looking ahead, we remain convinced that the strains being felt by many investors will drive sharper price... 26th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks, but scope for big rate cuts in 2024 The recent resilience in economic activity and stubbornness of inflation is raising market rate expectations, gilt yields, UK equities and the pound. And there is a growing risk that interest rates... 26th April 2023 · 13 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Partway through the correction While house price declines have slowed and economic activity has proven more resilient than expected over the three months since our last Outlook, we are sticking to our forecast that house prices... 26th April 2023 · 23 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to deliver final 25bp rate hike next week While inflation is moderating a touch faster than the RBA had anticipated, the continued acceleration in services inflation will probably prompt the RBA to deliver a final 25bp rate hike next week... 26th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2023) Asia Drop-In (28 th April): Join our special briefing on the BOJ April decision, Kazuo Ueda’s debut, and the fate of YCC. Register now. While inflation is moderating slightly faster than the RBA had... 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2023) 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) New home sales jumped in March and house prices increased 0.2% m/m in February. The continued resilience of the housing market means the risk to our forecast of an 8% drop in house prices are now to... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The euro-zone inflation outlook and the ECB May meeting 2nd May 2023, 3:00PM BST What do recent data signal about recession risk in the euro-zone? How high will the ECB take the policy rate to rein in inflation pressure?
UK Commercial Property Update Early yield correction gives retail an advantage A fall in consumption this year will weigh on the retail sector, but an earlier correction in yields and rents mean it is less vulnerable to the recession. Indeed, it was the only sector to see a fall... 24th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) The Ifo Business Climate Index rose again in April but remained in contractionary territory. This is contrast to the PMIs which point to much stronger economic performance at the start of Q2. 24th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation pressures gradually easing There was positive news for the Bank of Canada this week, as core inflation eased further in March. While our new house price forecasts imply there will be less disinflationary pressure from shelter... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
