US Economics Weekly Fed to signal higher rates despite soft activity data We expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting but, in what could be characterised as a “hawkish skip”, to signal via forward guidance (updated SEP forecasts and... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Employment will not defy gravity forever We learnt this week that the euro-zone fell into recession but Eurostat confirmed that employment rose sharply in Q1. The labour market seems to have remained quite strong in April and May but we... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why interest rates haven’t hurt…yet Higher interest rates haven’t dented the real economy much because household incomes have been unusually strong and the interest rates households are actually paying on their loans has not yet risen... 9th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shrinking output gap points to slower growth Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.7% q/q from 0.4% but we don’t think this strong performance will be sustained. One reason is that the output gap has narrowed significantly and points to a slowdown... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Top-ranked warehouse markets dominated by Sunbelt Our updated industrial metros analysis, which now incorporates the current vacancy rate, continues to point to Memphis as having the strongest prospects for rent growth over a three-year horizon... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Refinancing risks increase The recent upward revision to our mortgage rate forecast and the fact that the majority of those that need to refinance this year are on two-year fixes means that we are now more worried about the... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will less generous online returns help retail property? Recent economic difficulties have forced online retail to tighten their returns policies. At face value, this seems good news for retail property as it may shift demand back to stores for certain... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) The significant improvement in the RICS survey in May echoed the pause in house price falls in the past few months. But the survey also showed an increase in supply, which could make prices more... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2023) The narrowing of the trade surplus in April was driven in large part by a deterioration in the terms of trade. We think net exports will actually provide a modest boost to GDP growth this quarter. 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus The electric vehicle threat to Japan’s car industry Japan’s carmakers face an existential threat from the emergence of cheap EV exports from China. Even in a benign scenario where carmakers eventually jump on the EV bandwagon, we suspect that they... 8th June 2023 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2023) 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Higher for longer There appears to be enough support on the FOMC for a pause at next week’s meeting, but the statement and new projections will make clear that this is not the end of the hiking cycle. We now expect... 7th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank resumes hikes and probably another to come The Bank of Canada’s 25bp interest rate hike today is unlikely to be the last, with the rapid turnaround in the housing market and concerning underlying inflation dynamics raising the case for at... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilient interest sensitive activity indicators won’t last According to our proprietary interest rate-sensitive indicators, activity in advanced economies has so far proven remarkably resilient to higher interest rates. A lot of this has been due to a rebound... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
