UK Economics Update Fall in job vacancies across sectors needs to go further The recent decline in the number of job vacancies suggests that the upward pressure on wage growth from labour shortages is probably past its peak. But it’s still not clear that wage growth will slow... 5th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Why are job vacancies so low in Japan? Job vacancies haven’t surged in Japan because the participation rate has risen since the start of the pandemic and there hasn’t been a “Great Resignation” amongst Japanese workers. With the labour... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payrolls may not stop lower UST yields and equity prices Despite the stronger than expected US non-farm payroll print, we still think both the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the rest of this year. 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Why wait? The upside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth means there is a rising probability that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again. While the commonly held view seems to be that the Bank will... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling deal sealed; Fed to skip June T he debt ceiling standoff ended not with a bang but a whimper – as the bill easily passed the House and Senate with comfortable majorities. Although the prospect of a debt ceiling deal briefly... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Mega-cap outperformance: lessons from history In a recent Global Markets Update, we analysed the remarkably narrow rally in the S&P 500 so far in 2023. We concluded that recent history supported our forecast that the rally will run out of steam... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation falling; Sweden set for recession Data published this week showed that euro-zone core inflation fell for the second consecutive month in May, but it still looks likely that the ECB will raise interest rates again in June and probably... 2nd June 2023 · 12 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The bigger-than-expected 339,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May will dominate the headlines, but the employment report was not all positive – with a big drop in the household survey... 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Some signs that higher interest rates are working Higher interest rates appeared to have started to take a bigger toll on bank lending in April and on businesses’ inflation expectations in May. These data will have reassured the Bank of England that... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Spring 2023: Consensus forecasts under-estimate the pain to come It comes as no surprise to see a sharp downgrade to consensus forecasts given the combined impact of the regional banking crisis and growing office sector distress. But despite those downgrades, our... 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2022/23 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand weighing on price pressures Although activity in the manufacturing sector looks to have improved somewhat in May, that was mainly due to stronger growth in some large emerging markets. The outlook for industry remains bleak... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The slight decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.9 in May, from 47.1, reinforces our view that the jump in manufacturing output in April won’t be sustained. But the bigger news was the renewed... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
