Canada Economics Update Wage growth to slow despite labour strikes Despite some recent high-profile labour strikes, it still seems likely that overall wage growth will slow sharply during the next 12 months, as labour demand cools and elevated immigration boosts... 2nd August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Jun.) Seasonally-adjusted total employment growth rose by 0.6% 3m/3m on average across the 30 metros we track for the third consecutive month. But there has been clear weakness in the information sector in... 2nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) June’s rebound in mortgage applications for home purchase was short-lived as total applications fell by 1.7% in July. This pushed applications back down toward 30-year lows and was probably prompted... 2nd August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Lessons on taming inflation from the 1970s and 1980s One key lesson from the bouts of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s is that core inflation faded only once a loosening in the labour market drove down the job vacancy rate to more normal levels. We... 2nd August 2023 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2023) Although New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose slightly last quarter, the labour market remains very tight by historical standards. However, early signs are that the balance of labour demand and supply... 2nd August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Slower pace of labour market loosening Falling vacancies in sectors where wage growth has been particularly strong will provide some comfort to the Fed, however the JOLTS survey showed that the broader labour market remained resilient in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show no hint of a rebound in industry yet The latest PMIs suggest that the decline in global manufacturing activity has further to run. At least weak activity is weighing on price pressures, which should lead to further falls in core goods... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily “Risky” assets may face a harder road to further gains Some measures of market risk premia have become quite low, suggesting to us that the bar for further big gains in risky assets has risen. 1st August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The modest improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.4 in July, from 46.0, suggests the manufacturing downturn may be bottoming out. But it still points to a fairly steep decline in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Despite the easing in CPI inflation from 8.7% in May to 7.9% in June and core inflation from 7.1% to 6.9%, we think strong wage growth and the continued resilience of real GDP will mean interest rates... 1st August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA stays on hold again The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 4.10% for the second consecutive month. And while the Board continued to strike some hawkish notes, there is a good chance that its tightening... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) The slight fall in house prices in July is the first sign of the surge in mortgage rates since mid-May taking its toll. As we expect mortgage rates to remain around their current level for the next 12... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 23) 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Australia’s house-price rebound went full steam ahead in July. At the margin, that should strengthen the case for the RBA to lift its cash rate by a further 25bp at its meeting later today... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions remain tight The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows that, even though the banking crisis has faded, credit conditions remain unusually tight. Although the net percentage of banks tightening... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
