Three key points when swimming in a sea of scenarios

Energy prices are currently a bit higher than those incorporated into our baseline scenario and the Bank of England’s scenarios A and B, which increases the chances of the Bank of England raising interest rates from 3.75%. But, at the moment at least, any rises in interest rates would be modest. Indeed, even in our adverse scenario or the Bank’s scenario C, we suspect that a bigger hit to activity would prevent rates being raised to the 5.25% that the Bank has suggested.

In a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm BST on Thursday 7th May, we’ll be drawing on our latest forecasts and our new macroeconomic scenarios framework to discuss how the UK outlook could evolve through 2026 and beyond. (Register here.)