Recession delayed not cancelled

It’s starting to feel like a recession will never happen, but it will. Admittedly, the government may be absorbing more of the hit to national income from the surge in the cost of energy imports than we expected. The total reduction in national income may be smaller than we previously thought too. But we know that the surge in inflation and rise in interest rates will eventually hurt households and businesses. As such, we still think there will be a recession. It’s just starting later than we thought and may be a bit smaller.