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UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2025)

Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is still consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of Q1 after the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year. (See Chart 1.) This suggests that the risks to our Q1 GDP forecast of 0.4% q/q lie to the downside.

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