The 0.9% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in September meant sales volumes fell 0.8% q/q in Q3 and suggests that after the 18-month-long retail recession came to an end in Q1, the sector may already be back in recession. And as the drag on activity from higher interest rates intensifies, we still think that real consumer spending will decline by 0.5% from its peak to its trough over the coming quarters.
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