The larger-than-expected 1.5% q/q expansion in Mexico’s GDP partly reflected a recovery after Q1’s fall, and it won’t change the outcome of next week’s central bank meeting (a hold at 6.50% is all but certain). But the data does suggest that the communications are likely to become a bit less dovish and we think the balance of probabilities is tilted towards a rate hike over the next six months or so.
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