Argentina: next phase of stabilisation plan more difficult

Argentina’s President Javier Milei has pledged to remove capital controls but we think that a major change in Argentina’s exchange rate setting before the mid-term elections in October is unlikely. And even then, our sense is that the removal of capital controls will be gradual and incomplete. This would mean that the impact on inflation and public debt would be manageable, but it would come at the expense of a weak economic recovery.

Note: We will be hosting an online briefing to discuss EM financial risk and the latest update of our risk indicators today at 15.00 GMT. Register here.