The outcomes of the EM central bank meetings since the beginning of October underscore the point that Asia will lead the next phase of the EM easing cycle. Central banks in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America are slowing the pace of (or pausing) interest rate cuts. The big unknown for EM monetary policy is the outcome of the US election; a victory for Donald Trump and more protectionist trade policy would firmly tilt the risk towards EM interest rates staying higher than we currently forecast.
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