Global Economics Update Blue wave could bring new geopolitical risks The Democrat sweep in the midterms could push President Trump to assert his authority in foreign policy, where the election makes little difference to his powers and he may seek to leave his mark... 4th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide little sign of energy price shock broadening The manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that East Asian economies may have lost momentum, but there were more positive stories elsewhere in the EM world. The drop back in the output price component... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2026) High-frequency data point to further outflows from EM bond and equity markets, which has been exacerbated by domestic developments in a handful of places (Brazil’s election, the threat of a downgrade... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update France's fiscal warning to the rest of the world The sell-off in French bonds is a warning for governments elsewhere, but we doubt it is the start of a broad fiscal crisis. Few advanced economies have comparably poor fiscal arithmetic, and those... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why Brazil and South Africa could do with new fiscal rules New fiscal rules mooted in Brazil and South Africa could, if implemented, make significant inroads into their public debt problems by reducing high borrowing costs. But the devil will lie in the... 20th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Asia’s boom comes with commodity risks This week we participated in an Emerging Markets Forum in Monaco, with a special focus on Central Asia. The key takeaway is that the growth outlook in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains strong and... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing finishes Q3 on a strong note The jump in the EM manufacturing PMI in September to one of its highest levels since the post-pandemic recovery provides encouraging signs that EM growth is picking up in spite of the ongoing energy... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight EM credit spreads mask lingering fiscal risks Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2026) High-frequency data suggest that the rise in US Treasury yields has triggered capital outflows from EMs. But so far at least, the shift has been relatively gradual. Taken together with strong external... 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EM central banks follow the Fed? While a handful of EM central banks (e.g. India, Czechia, Mexico) are likely to hike interest rates in the coming months, they will be doing so for domestic reasons not because of the Fed. More... 21st September 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Soft EM food inflation is on borrowed time A severe El Niño and the lagged effects of the energy shock are likely to push EM food inflation up from current lows. Food is unlikely to be as important as core or energy prices in determining the... 9th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Learning to live with extreme weather events The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will be a greater source of economic volatility than in the past and could hit some sectors particularly hard. The changing nature of... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A bumpy and uneven Q3 for EM manufacturing The small rise in the emerging market manufacturing PMI in August looks encouraging, but masks the fact that the surveys declined in most EMs last month. Encouragingly, the prices components remained... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update AI rally and oil prices to drive EM asset divergence While local-currency bonds in parts of LatAm and EM Europe may outperform those in Asia if oil prices fall, equities in those regions are likely to continue to lag their Asian peers as the AI rally... 26th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2026) Capital flows into EM bond and equity markets have returned to positive territory in the past few weeks and are nearing their highest level in over two years. Even if flows were to reverse course, our... 24th August 2026 · 2 mins read
