Donald Trump’s victory in the US election could pave the way for dialogue with Russia and a ceasefire in Ukraine, but we think it's unlikely in this scenario that sanctions on Russia would be lifted to a significant degree. Trump is likely to continue to provide support for Israel, raising the risk that the Gaza war is prolonged and that tit-for-tat strikes with Iran escalate. Meanwhile, although Trump's tariff threat poses downside risks to growth across the region, a universal 10% US import tariff next year is likely to have only a limited impact and we're not minded to revise down our GDP growth forecasts.
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