Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US mid-terms and the Iran war, Saudi budget deficit The US mid-terms and a flurry of diplomatic activity in the region have reduced the threat of a renewed escalation of the Iran war and also raised hopes that a political solution to the conflict may... 5th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Blue wave could bring new geopolitical risks The Democrat sweep in the midterms could push President Trump to assert his authority in foreign policy, where the election makes little difference to his powers and he may seek to leave his mark... 4th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (October '26) A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. Our base case is that a sustained return to pre-war energy exports won’t... 29th October 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diplomacy stepped up, IMF in Egypt, Bahrain support There has been a step-up in diplomatic efforts over the past week to avoid a renewed escalation of the Iran war. While Iran is enduring severe economic pain, regime hardliners may still be willing to... 29th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran: will economic pain force the regime to capitulate? The US naval blockade that has now been in place for more than 100 days is imposing severe pain on Iran’s economy, with the rial tumbling and inflation at close to 90% y/y. But the extent to which... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran strikes, bond sales, Xi in Cairo There are growing signs that the US blockade is squeezing Iran’s economy, but US and Iranian strikes this week highlight the challenge of securing a resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the... 3rd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt at centre of US-China AI tussle, Iran-Oman deal Egypt's decision over whether to have the US or China build a data centre could have ramifications for the country’s broader ties with the two superpowers and provide a framework for other EMs facing... 27th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response “Economic D-Day” Sanctions (Aug. 2026) The announcement of the “greatest financial offensive ever” by the US ups the ante on Iran and could widen the divide between factions in the country. But with the renewed US naval blockade already... 24th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE tensions, UAE-Iran trade ties, Egypt spreads Reports that Saudi Arabia has increased monitoring of financial transactions with the UAE appears to be part of growing geopolitical competition between the two countries. The macro impact should be... 20th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran economy under pressure, Egypt rate cuts coming US efforts to squeeze the Iranian economy via the blockade are having some effect, but it remains uncertain whether this will be enough to result in larger concessions from the Iranian regime... 13th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can Iran continue to hold out? Iran’s financial lifeline has been cut by the US blockade, and the economy will remain in a very depressed state unless it can secure concessions. But whether this happens ultimately comes down to the... 10th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Hitting Iran’s economy, Saudi’s GDP fall There have been growing suggestions this week that the US will seek to put more economic pressure on Iran to force it to make concessions. But while Iran’s economy is showing increasing strains, the... 30th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July '26) The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will set back the nascent recoveries in the Gulf economies. And the downside risks to our forecast for a ~6%... 29th July 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A tale of two seas and the global oil market Brent crude prices crossed $100pb this week on the back of escalating supply risks in the Middle East and from Russia. While the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia may only have a limited impact on... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi nuclear deal, Trump and Iran up the ante The US-Saudi nuclear deal announced this week is a sign that Washington is trying to shore up ties with the Gulf states, which have been fraying due to the Iran war. The conflict itself has escalated... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Back to the future The renewed attacks by the US and Iran risk prolonging the Gulf economies' downturns by pushing back recoveries in oil output and in non-oil sectors. On top of this, the risk of disruptions to... 16th July 2026 · 6 mins read
