Turkey’s hiking cycle, Poland’s consumer recovery

Turkey's central bank delivered another large 500bp interest rate hike this week but it also signalled that its tightening cycle was very close to an end. While the local elections in March may be playing a part in this decision, we're not convinced that these are likely to have a particularly big impact on the policy shift. Elsewhere, the strong retail sales figures released for Poland for October highlight the country's outperformance with the rest of Central Europe and suggest that the recovery in real wages is now feeding through into stronger consumption. We expect this to continue and drive the regional recovery in 2024.