Emerging Europe Weekly: What would a “dirty deal” for Russia-Ukraine mean?

The US-Russia meeting this week to seek an end to the war in Ukraine has clearly raised the possibility that a peace deal is negotiated quickly and on terms more favourable to Russia (a so called "dirty deal"). This could lead to greater US sanctions relief on Russia and a better macroeconomic outlook there. But inadequate security guarantees for Ukraine would likely limit the amount of capital that investors would be willing to commit for the country’s reconstruction, and increase the perceived risk of doing business on NATO’s eastern border.