The road back to energy normality is getting longer

21st May 2026

The longer the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues, the more complex any eventual pick-up in energy flows will be. Oil prices could clearly fall back sharply as/if/when any US-Iran deal transpires, reflecting a likely narrowing in the risk premium. But oil prices would only trend lower when oil market fundamentals materially improve, which looks destined to stretch into 2027.

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