Beyond Hormuz: the path back to an oil glut

Investors have already priced in much of the good news on the recovery in Gulf energy exports, leaving scope for some volatility in prices, and even price rises, over Q3 and Q4. Beyond this, while efforts to rebuild strategic inventories will boost demand in 2027, the global oil market is likely to return to glut conditions once shut-in production is restored fully over the next six month, which will push the Brent crude price towards $60pb by end-2027.