Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
OPEC+’s decision to roll over its production cuts into Q3 will keep supply constrained in the near term. But the unwinding of some of these cuts from October will mean that the oil market is better supplied over 2025 and oil prices should fall. Ample gas storage in Europe will put an end to the recent rally in TTF prices, but faltering US production should push US gas prices higher. Meanwhile, we think global coal prices will fall this year as renewable power curbs coal demand.
The sentiment driven rally in industrial metals prices has begun to unravel and we suspect prices will fall further in the second half of 2024. Finally, attention in agricultural markets will increasingly turn to the risks from a La Niña weather event in late 2024. The impact on production will depend upon the strength and duration of the event which, at this stage, is uncertain.
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