OPEC+’s announcement that it will pick up the pace of oil output increases for the second consecutive month in June helped to push oil prices to four-year lows. This represents a marked shift in policy from OPEC+ that will lead to a surplus developing in the oil market from H2 2025 onwards. As a result, we have decreased our end year Brent forecasts to $60/barrel this year and $50/barrel for end-2026.
Meanwhile, the rally in gold prices has been driven by stronger demand across China, as well as from the US as uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s policies has pushed investors into safe havens. Our end-year forecasts for gold to end 2025 and 2026 at $3,300 per/oz and $3,400 per/oz are above consensus.
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