The overnight announcement of a ceasefire between Israel/US and Iran has brought commodity and financial markets largely back to their pre-conflict square one. While tensions remain high and could easily re-ignite, our sense is that attention will now shift towards three upcoming economic policy-focused event risks: the looming 8th July end to the “Liberation Day” tariff “pause”, the US fiscal package currently with the Senate, and the growing divide on the FOMC in the run-up to the end of Chair Powell’s term.
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