The US stock market is not braced for a recession

We anticipate that the S&P 500 will fall back later in 2023, largely because analysts are far from pricing in a recession in the US that we think is even more likely after the recent banking turmoil. Our forecast is that the index will reach a trough of 3,500 around the third quarter, before staging a recovery.

In view of the wider interest we are also sending this Asset Allocation Update to clients of our Global Markets Service.