Are lower oil prices a net negative for the US after all?

Our initial view that lower oil prices would be a net positive for the real economy is not borne out in the first quarter data. The negative impact on mining investment almost outweighed the positive impact from rising purchasing power on real consumption. The adjustment in the mining sector is almost complete, however, while there is still scope for a surge in real consumption. Accordingly, we still think that lower oil prices will eventually turn out to be a big net positive.