Budget Preview – Restraint now, largesse later

Despite the improving outlook for the public finances, the rumours that the Chancellor will set himself some fairly stringent fiscal rules suggest that there’s not going to be a net giveaway in the Budget and Spending Review on Wednesday 27^th But our forecast that the economy will emerge from COVID-19 with less long term scarring than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects suggests the Chancellor will be able to cancel scheduled tax hikes and/or spending cuts before the 2024 election.