What next for Brazil’s recovery?

The hit to the Brazilian economy from May’s truck drivers’ strike already seems to be reversing. But the recent tightening of financial conditions means the recovery over the second half of the year is likely to be weaker than we previously thought. We have revised down our forecast for this year to 2.3%, from 3.0% (our 2019 forecast is unchanged at 3.5%). These forecasts are still above the consensus though.