Economic rebound underway, capital inflows pick up

Real-time data show a notable pick up in activity over the past couple of weeks, most likely due to the easing of virus restrictions in some major states. There are clearly upside risks to our view that the recovery from the second virus outbreak will be gradual. But if we are wrong and the reopening is rapid, that would increase the threat of renewed outbreaks. A faster initial recovery may come at the cost of a relapse further ahead.