Which EM central banks might hike next?

The next EM central banks likely to raise interest rates are those whose economic recoveries are relatively advanced and can focus on inflation and/or financial risks. Chile and Korea fit into this group and we expect rate hikes from both in August. Above-target inflation and growing domestic (fiscal) risks mean there’s an outside chance that Colombia’s central bank will hike soon too. Were global risk appetite to deteriorate sharply, tightening might also come onto the cards in South Africa.