Where could the next EM rate surprise come?

Policymakers in several EMs – notably China – have surprised the markets with unexpected rate decisions over the past month or so. In this Update we identify the EM central banks that are most likely to spring further surprises in the months ahead. In general, the risks are skewed towards greater-than-anticipated easing and among the major EMs it’s possible that India and Mexico could cut before the end of the year. But in several places, including Turkey, the risks are tilted towards tighter policy.