Scope for some EM rate cuts even if risk premia rise

We expect EM risk premia to rise this year as global growth slows, something which has often been associated with EM central banks raising interest rates. But big currency falls and surges in inflation this year look unlikely. In fact, lower inflation and/or slower growth should mean a number of central banks, including those in Mexico, Turkey, India, China and the Philippines, cut interest rates this year.