Next big move for the ruble will be down

The ruble has been on a rollercoaster ride of late, falling by 10% against its dollar/euro basket in May, before clawing back around 5% of its losses over the past few weeks. If nothing else, this underlines the extent to which the currency has become far more flexible over the past couple of years. But with the external environment likely to deteriorate once again over the coming months, we think the ruble is set for further falls. We have pencilled in a drop of 10% or so against its dollar/euro basket over the next 18 months, with almost all of the adjustment coming against the US$.