We expect higher interest rates to cause a 10% fall in house prices over the next 12 months and an even steeper fall in residential investment. With the rest of the economy still recovering from the pandemic and benefitting from higher commodity prices, that weakness should cause GDP growth to slow sharply rather than turn negative, but the downside risks of recession are rising.
Canada Drop-In (10th May, 12:00 EDT/ 17:00 BST): We’ll be discussing the impact of monetary tightening on the economy and whether the Bank of Canada is risking a policy mistake in this special 20-minute briefing. Register now
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