Second-quarter GDP growth likely to be dismal

Although incoming data indicate that first-quarter GDP grew by as much as 2.8% annualised, we doubt this marks the beginning of an upturn in economic growth prospects. Economic growth in that quarter was boosted by a surge in energy exports, even as the devastation in the oil & gas industry went from bad to worse. Meanwhile, the improvement in non-energy exports hasn’t led to a turnaround in business investment. If the low level of business confidence is any indication of what lies ahead, then the economy’s performance this quarter will likely be dismal, with GDP growth below 1.0%.