Chances of RBA rate cuts fading, but not disappearing

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for a third consecutive month appears to diminish the chances that rates will eventually fall to 1.5% as we have been forecasting. Nonetheless, we doubt that 2.0% will mark the floor as we believe the RBA is still underestimating the extent of the slowdown in GDP growth that lies ahead.

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