Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA is probably done tightening The RBA lifted its policy rate to an 18-year high today but noted that monetary conditions are now restrictive. We expect the Bank’s next move to be a rate cut, but not until the second half of next... 3rd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tighter immigration settings a long-term downside risk There are some early signs that tighter immigration rules are starting to reduce net migration and there’s a risk that the government will curb migrant inflows further over the coming years. With... 2nd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update House prices will plunge by more than 10% Australia’s house prices have never fallen as rapidly as they have in the current downturn and we now expect them to eventually fall by more than 10% for the first time in the country’s modern history... 2nd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ still on course to tighten a bit further The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold today was finely balanced and the Committee signalled that further tightening remained likely. That said, the Bank’s cautious approach supports our view that... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike to 3.25% by year-end We expect the RBNZ to lift the Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, at its October meeting, as it seeks to mitigate upside risks to inflation. We’ve also brought forward our forecast for the final... 22nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher neutral rate need not prompt more tightening The evidence that the neutral rate of interest has continued to rise is mixed. And with excess demand now clearly diminishing, we’re not convinced that further monetary tightening is warranted. 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update No reprieve for the housing market yet Australia’s housing downturn still has further to run, even if there are tentative signs that demand is beginning to stabilise. Weakening housing market conditions should help ease shelter inflation... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Public sector still not providing helping hand to RBA The public sector has reined in its profligate tendencies ever so slightly in recent quarters, but the 2026/27 state and federal Budgets point to continued strong growth in government spending. That... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA keeps its options open after hawkish hike The RBA hiked rates as expected and kept the door open to further tightening. We still think the cash rate has peaked, as the cooling labour market should help reduce capacity pressures. However, the... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZ Labour’s tax plan risks delaying housing rebound Opinion polls suggest that New Zealand’s Labour party has a path back to power in November’s general election. Labour’s plan to introduce a capital gains tax on residential investment property risks... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ tones down its hawkish bias a touch The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates as expected, but struck a more balanced tone on the risks to its outlook. Although another hike this year seems likely, we continue to expect the OCR to... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing-market outlook hinges on the RBA Australian house prices continued to fall at a rapid pace in August. While we expect the pace of monthly declines to ease more noticeably in the months ahead, risks to this view have increased. If the... 1st September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Impact of housing tax changes still difficult to detect While there’s a risk that the tax changes announced in the Budget will result in a more pronounced downturn, for now we’re comfortable with our forecast of a 6% peak-to-trough fall in house prices. 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA retains hawkish bias, but next move will be a cut While the RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged today was widely expected, the Board took pains to reiterate that it remains prepared to tighten policy further if needed. However, despite its tough... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn will prevent further rate hikes Australian house prices kept falling at a rapid pace in July. With affordability still very stretched and leading indicators flashing red, the downturn has much further to run. 3rd August 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
