AI’s effects so far primarily reflect a boost to demand from infrastructure spending. A supply-side improvement from efficiency gains will come, but we continue to expect these to arrive gradually in the late 2020s and 2030s. Disruption in the labour market is real, but smaller and more manageable than feared. That said, the AI transition could yet be messy. That’s probably where the most uncertainty lies.
Note: We'll be discussing our latest thinking on AI's macro and market implications in online Drop-In briefings on Tuesday, 7th July. Register here for sessions in Asian or US trading hours.
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