Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Saudi relations, Lebanon maritime deal, Tunisia crisis The past week has brought further evidence that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has soured after OPEC+ opted to cut oil quotas – Saudi Arabia is clearly leaning away from the US orbit... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US policy deals a blow to China’s equities, not for the last time China’s equities came under pressure today, partly in response to the US announcing fresh curbs on technology exports to the country last Friday. This is another crack in an increasingly fractured... 10th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly UN win highlights China’s “fracturing” vulnerabilities China had a diplomatic win at the UN this week, but its success also shines a light on its vulnerabilities as the global economy fractures into US and China-centred blocs. China has more supporters in... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
CE Spotlight What might fracturing mean for the markets? Fracturing will be felt very differently by markets in different parts of the world. Sectors within US-aligned markets where ties with China are most likely to fracture could see significant ructions... 6th October 2022 · 23 mins read
CE Spotlight The macroeconomic effects of fracturing Fracturing of global economic and financial ties will lead to shifts in supply chains, and reduced technology and investment flows between US- and China-centred blocs over the coming decade... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
CE Spotlight Fracturing and the impact on geopolitics & institutions In a fractured world, the role of global institutions is likely to decline even further. The consequences of weakened multilateral economic institutions (e.g. the IMF and World Bank) would be felt... 6th October 2022 · 15 mins read
CE Spotlight The threat to migration flows The globalisation witnessed over recent decades has manifested itself in increased flows of trade, capital and people. We have already discussed what the fracturing of the world economy might imply... 6th October 2022 · 15 mins read
CE Spotlight Fracturing and financial flows The trend towards ever more “financial globalisation” has already decelerated and will probably slow further as the global economy fractures and policymakers favour resilience over efficiency. While a... 6th October 2022 · 25 mins read
CE Spotlight Securing raw materials in a fractured world China’s dominance in the supply of some key materials needed for the green transition means that US-aligned governments will continue efforts to secure supplies from “friendly” sources, which could... 6th October 2022 · 14 mins read
CE Spotlight The impact of fracturing on trade and supply chains Fracturing will not be felt as globalisation in reverse – apart from a few categories of goods deemed politically sensitive or strategically important, most trade between the US and China-aligned... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
CE Spotlight The fracturing of the global economy The shocks caused by the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and US-China tensions will have a lasting impact on the world economy, reversing decades of global integration in some areas while strengthening... 6th October 2022 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC+ cut highlights Saudi shift away from the US Yesterday’s decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd adds to signs that, in a world economy that is fracturing, Saudi Arabia is tilting away from the US and leaning towards a China... 6th October 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Taiwan tensions add impetus to decoupling If China’s military drills off the coast of Taiwan end, as scheduled, on Sunday and there is no further retaliation, this week’s flare-up in tension won’t have a direct economic impact. But it will... 5th August 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update China doesn’t appear to want an economic fight The trade sanctions introduced by China on Taiwan in retaliation for the visit of Nancy Pelosi are small in scope rather than serious efforts to force Taipei to shift course. China is constrained in... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
China Economics Focus What will China do with its FX reserves? In adapting to the threat of having its foreign exchange reserves frozen, the People’s Bank is likely to shift more of its portfolio into unconventional alternatives, including EM sovereign debt and... 1st April 2022 · 19 mins read
